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Chris de Lavigne, head of KPMG, pointed out that the developing market will be the main driving force for biodiesel development in the next few years, mainly because of the government's implementation of biofuel blending policies. For example, Sanin Triyanond, president of the Thai Biodiesel Producers Association, pointed out that Thailand's biodiesel production tends to decline due to the decline in domestic inventories, which indicates that Thailand's biodiesel blending policy is used as a tool to digest excess palm oil stocks to some extent. If there is no free demand, future demand will be driven by the needs of governments, especially global emissions commitments, agricultural and energy security prices.
Although the EU is still the world's largest importer of palm oil-biodiesel, the recent EU ban on palm methyl ester biodiesel may cause a decline in EU palm oil imports. However, Julian McGill, head of Southeast Asia at LMC International, believes that the EU's total ban on palm oil biofuels is not realistic. The change will not happen overnight. He believes that the voting process has extended the discussion time, which may alleviate the impact of potential policy reforms. Vasu R Vasuthewan, member of the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification Committee, agreed. He said that the EU is very unlikely to implement a full ban, but he pointed out that European management policy trends may lead to tariff increases or non-tariff barriers, phasing out bio-diesel based on grain, possibly for non-biofuel-palm oil products. Compulsory certification.
Some speakers pointed out that key factors will affect the biofuel industry, such as the decline in diesel demand, the increasing popularity of electricity, and hybrid vehicles will become potential competitors for fuel-based vehicles. With these trends in mind, the head of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Harrison Lau, recommends that the biofuels industry further develop biodiesel standards, considering downstream processing of biofuel products such as motor oils, solvents and other products. Tjakrawan pointed out that Aprobi is also seeking new development opportunities for the Indonesian biofuel industry, such as aviation fuel, raw butanol and alternative raw materials using algae and biomass as raw materials.
Kenanga Research remains neutral on the plantation industry and has not adjusted its 2017 CPO price estimate to remain at RM2,550 per tonne. Unless CPO prices fall sharply, or crude oil prices rebound, biodiesel is unlikely to be the driving force for CPO prices in the near term. The current price difference between palm oil and diesel is about US$120 per ton, which is about RM514.80, which indicates that the price of crude palm oil is around RM2,000.
In terms of demand, Paulus Tjakrawan, vice chairman of the Indonesian Biofuels Manufacturers Association, pointed out that since 2014, biodiesel export demand has declined, especially in Europe, because biofuel prices are much higher than diesel prices, making domestic demand important. Sexual improvement.